ConAgra Brands, Inc.

What drives the forecast

• September 24 Capital IQ normalized consensus: $0.28 on 12 estimates, sales $2,588.02m on 11 estimates; the FY27 guidance gives only an annual adjusted EPS range of $1.40–$1.50.
• Segment forecast uses the reported FY26 first-quarter base with modest price, consumption and divestiture assumptions; projected sales of $2,590.3m are only 0.09% above CapIQ consensus.
• Management's July outlook calls for FY27 organic sales down 1–3%, adjusted margin 10–10.5%, and a 24% tax rate; 1Q gross margin of 22.3% and elevated SG&A imply adjusted EPS near $0.29.
• September 23 Zacks reported mildly downward estimate revisions, yet a positive 3.22% earnings ESP on its distinct $0.31 consensus; Campbell's and General Mills reported weak US packaged-food volume and cost pressure.
• The $10m assumed pretax restructuring charge is excluded from normalized results; GAAP diluted EPS is approximately $0.27. Probability of strictly exceeding $0.28 consensus is 56%.