CarMax Inc

What drives the forecast

• CapIQ's September 24 snapshot shows normalized EPS $0.72 (10 contributing estimates), GAAP EPS $0.70, and sales $6,984.29m; forecast $0.62 adjusted EPS, about $0.10 lower.
• Cox's July and August used-retail sales fell 2.2% and 3.2% year over year despite used listing prices rising 6% and 7%; our forecast is 199,500 CarMax retail units, roughly flat year over year, at $27,000 average selling price.
• Zacks Research lowered its fiscal Q2 2027 EPS forecast to $0.57 from $0.60 on September 17; Carvana posted 38% retail-unit growth in its June quarter while Lithia used-unit volume declined 2.7%, underscoring share and margin risk.
• Issuer June-quarter results showed retail gross profit per unit falling to about $2,177 and CAF income $140.2m; forecast $2,130 retail GPU, $106m CAF income and approximately $597m SG&A, reflecting competitive pricing and upfront credit-loss provisioning.
• CarMax gave no numerical Q2 FY2027 earnings or revenue guidance. The $200m SG&A savings target is an FY2027 exit run-rate rather than quarter-specific guidance; no unannounced restructuring or impairment is assumed.
• EPS basis: Adjusted diluted EPS; no exceptional adjustment assumed.