Nike, Inc.
Shortcut
0.45Normalized diluted EPS
+2.0% vs Street
Street
0.44Normalized diluted EPS
September 24 consensus snapshot
Real
0.48Normalized diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
FY27 Q1 revenue $11,358.1m implies -3.1% Y/Y, within management's June 30 low-to-mid-single-digit decline guidance and just $29.5m above September 24 consensus.
The SEC-reported 1Q FY26 geographic/product mix and observed China/EMEA weakness imply nearly flat North America, -3.1% EMEA, -11.5% China, and -0.6% APLA in this quarter's model.
Gross margin expands 40 basis points from the 42.18% Q1 FY26 base and demand creation rises 8% while overhead falls 4%, consistent with management's directional margin and nearly flat SG&A guidance.
DICK'S August 25 footwear-promotion warning and UBS's September 18 channel checks counterbalance Jefferies's September 28 expense-led upside case; pre-September-24 signals are not double-counted against the captured consensus.
The prior FY26 Q4 IEEPA refund added about $0.52 to GAAP EPS but is not forecast to recur; thus FY27 Q1 normalized and GAAP diluted EPS each equal roughly $0.45 on 1,483.6m diluted shares.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ1 2027 - Aug 2026
- Reporting basis
- Normalized diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- September 24, 2026
- Model / effort
- GPT Sol 6 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
- Forecast history
- Original September 28 forecast ↗
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Sep 29, 2026 at 1:01 PM PDT
- First published
- Sep 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM PDT
Forecast summary
- The revised model estimates normalized diluted EPS of $0.45, compared with the frozen September 24 Street estimate of $0.44.
- The revised research considers company size, index membership and prior earnings history before weighing quarter-specific evidence. Historical beat rates are a starting assumption, not a mechanical increase to EPS.
How this result is scored
The Street baseline: consensus snapshot, September 24, 2026. Results are scored only after the earnings basis is matched. Read the methodology.