Nike, Inc.

What drives the forecast

• September 24 Capital IQ consensus: $11,328.63m sales, $0.44 normalized diluted EPS (17 EPS contributors); model assumes $11,285.7m and $0.40 displayed EPS.
• NIKE guided first-quarter revenue down low-to-mid single digits, slightly positive gross-margin change, flat SG&A dollars and high-single-digit marketing growth; revenue midpoint based on verbal guidance is $11,309.8m.
• UBS September 17 channel checks point to deteriorating U.S./Europe direct sales, Europe wholesale and China demand, elevated promotion and an approximately $0.05 EPS miss versus consensus.
• DICK'S August 25 reported Foot Locker comps down 3.6% and heavier legacy-footwear promotions; JD Sports September 23 reported softer footwear and 20bp gross-margin contraction; World Cup football demand is a partial offset.
• Forecast gross margin 42.3%, demand creation +8%, overhead approximately -2.8%, tax 20.7% and 1,485m diluted shares imply $596.19m GAAP and normalized income; Q4 FY26's $0.52/share IEEPA recovery is not repeated.
• EPS basis: Normalized diluted EPS; excludes tariff-recovery gains.