Progress Software Corporation

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Issuer June 30 guided Q3 revenue $244–250m and non-GAAP EPS $1.53–1.59; July 22 reiterated revenue and EPS within or above the top end, supporting a modest $251.4m / $1.65 forecast rather than incremental Domo revenue.

Q2 reported $253.465m revenue and $1.62 adjusted diluted EPS; Q2 licensing grew 36% to $68.979m but ARR grew only 2% to $868m, so license revenue may normalize to the modeled $65.6m in Q3.

Domo asset transaction was announced July 22 with FY26 closing expectation; zero acquired revenue is modeled for the August quarter. June 30 issuer guidance already expected a $0.2m positive Q3 FX translation; this is allocated within, not added to, the $251.4m revenue forecast.

Issuer Q3 guidance bridge includes ~$0.85 acquired-amortization, $0.41 stock compensation, $0.07 acquisition and $0.13 cyber costs per share, offset by ~$0.28 tax; model derives $0.47 GAAP and $1.65 normalized diluted EPS separately.

All six prior normalized EPS actuals exceeded contemporaneous Street estimates; small-cap eight-pseudo-observation smoothing gives starting P(beat) 0.7714, with modest high-end reaffirmation net +0.0229 to 0.7943. Potential license pull-forward and cost volatility remain downside risks.