Progress Software Corporation

What drives the forecast

• Management said July 22 that Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS would be within or above the June guidance high ends of $250m and $1.59; this was already public before the September 24 consensus capture.
• Quarterly license $65.0m, maintenance $102.2m, SaaS $74.5m and services $10.3m total $252.0m, up 0.9% year over year; preceding-quarter ARR reached $868m with 100% net retention.
• Domo closed September 22, after August 31 quarter end; no acquisition revenue or purchase consideration is recognized in Q3.
• The 41.312m reported May 31 closing shares anchor a share issuance/buyback roll-forward to 41.70m projected diluted weighted shares; adjusted net income $68.84m / 41.70m = $1.65084 (headline $1.65).
• September 25 independent preview said $1.52 EPS consensus was unchanged for 30 days; license-renewal timing and deal/cyber costs temper confidence despite management's reaffirmed top end.