CME Group Inc.
Shortcut
3.01Normalized diluted EPS
+1.1% vs Street
Street
2.98Normalized diluted EPS
October 18 consensus snapshot
Real
3.02Issuer adjusted diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
The asset-class volume and rate build forecasts $1.27bn of futures and options fees and $1.37bn of total clearing and transaction fees. Market data and other revenue bring total revenue to $1.72bn.
Forecast operating expenses of $577.3m produce operating income of $1.15bn. Net non-operating income is $202.3m, including the retained collateral-interest assumptions.
After $63m of adjustments and a 23.2% normalized tax rate, adjusted net income is $1.08bn. Diluted shares of 359.44m give normalized EPS of $3.0139164446907585 versus the frozen $2.98 Street estimate.
Rounded issuer volume inputs, the daily-versus-quarterly basis of the IRS preview and the July opening-share observation remain source limitations. No input has been scaled or retuned to remove those uncertainties.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026
- Reporting basis
- Adjusted/consensus normalized diluted EPS, with issuer two-class allocation conventions retained
- Consensus snapshot
- October 18, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 19, 2026 at 8:54 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 19, 2026 at 10:16 AM PDT
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637525000204/exhibit9919302025.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637525000206/cme-20250930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000006/exhibit991123125.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000016/exhibit9913312026.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000020/cme-20260331.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000042/exhibit9916302026.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/cme-20260630.htm
- https://investor.cmegroup.com/static-files/f03a4407-750b-4ce3-a3db-02d59b60b8a6 ; https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cme-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-152400491.html
- https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/04/cme_group_july_volumehitsnewrecordof27millioncontractsup23yearov.html
- https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/9/02/cme_group_reportssecond-highestaugustadvof297millioncontracts.html
- https://investor.cmegroup.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cme-group-reports-record-average-daily-volume-september-and-q3
- https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/10/08/cme_group_s_internationalaveragedailyvolumerises22to9millioncont.html
- https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/9/04/cme_group_inc_announcesthird-quarter2026earningsreleaseconferenc.html
- https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/06/cme_group_declaresquarterlydividend.html
- https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/ser/2026/08/ser-9799.html
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
- https://www.xxquant.com/en/institution/institutional-research/b5c57274f512bd1ecc7b606e7aa36170
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ahead-cme-cme-q3-earnings-121521086.html
- https://drillr.ai/article/cme-group-q3-2026-earnings-rate-per-contract
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cme/market-cap/
- https://chartrow.com/sp500/companies
- https://investor.cmegroup.com/static-files/0c348bd4-935e-4de7-8e1e-e2b2dedb4fb0
- https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/22/cme-cme-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/ (URL path date is the re-post date; call held 2025-07-23)
- https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/04/cme-group-cme-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
- https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2025/11/04/cme_group_octobervolumehitsnewrecordof263millioncontractsup8year.html ; https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/5/04/cme_group_reportsapril2026advof259millioncontracts.html
- https://cfgi.io/cme-stock-quarterly-report/