Netflix, Inc.
Shortcut
0.83Normalized diluted EPS
+0.8% vs Street
Street
0.82Normalized diluted EPS
October 18 consensus snapshot
Real
0.87Issuer diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Issuer guidance (16-Jul-2026): revenue $12.86bn, operating income $4.27bn (33.2%), net income $3.45bn, EPS $0.82 - identical to the frozen consensus EPS consensus.
Regional build (UCAN +10%, EMEA +9.5%, LATAM +14%, APAC +15% FX-neutral; total +10.9% FX-neutral, +11.8% reported) gives revenue $12.87bn, in line with guidance/consensus; dollar flat over 3Q26.
Operating margin 33.4% (vs 33.2% guide): Netflix beat its operating-income forecast by $51-97m in each of the last three quarters; partly offset by 2Q26 expense-timing reversal and live-event costs.
Below the line: interest expense $186m (incl. new $1bn 2036 notes), other income $48m, 16.5% tax rate -> net income $3.48bn.
The model assumes $3.0bn of repurchases at $74 and a 4.75m dilution add-on. Severance from the October14 layoffs is assumed in Q4; a Q3 accrual is a downside risk.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026
- Reporting basis
- consensus normalized diluted EPS forecast, assuming zero Q3 exclusions; provider normalized-NI basis remains unresolved
- Consensus snapshot
- October 18, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 19, 2026 at 12:35 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 19, 2026 at 9:14 AM PDT
Result basis
Reported diluted EPS; Netflix provides no separate adjusted EPS. Scored under the published zero-exclusion assumption; consensus data’s separate normalized-net-income definition remains unresolved.
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000211/ex991_q226.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000137/ex991_q126.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000033/ex991_q425.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528025000404/ex991_q325.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528025000322/ex991_q225.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000212/nflx-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000138/R1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528025000406/nflx-20250930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000034/nflx-20251231.htm
- https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2026/Netflix-to-Announce-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000119312526312575/d171951d8k.htm
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/netflix-layoffs.html
- https://about.netflix.com/en/news/peter-rice-named-netflix-chief-content-officer
- https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/netflix-raises-subscription-prices-across-all-plans-us-2026-03-26/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/netflix-price-increase-2026-subscription-fees/
- https://about.netflix.com/news/netflix-gets-closer-closes-2026-us-upfront
- https://apptopia.com/en/insights/netflix-us-engagement-got-worse-in-q326/
- https://www.xxquant.com/en/institution/institutional-research/91b893a3cdbdfe1b60fcc18a575f3809
- https://dataporium.tech/articles/us-dollar-q3-2026-yen-intervention-currencies
- https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-10-01&rid=15
- https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/netflix-market-cap-2026
- https://whichindex.com/companies/netflix/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ahead-netflix-nflx-q3-earnings-121516048.html
- https://pepperstone.com/en/insights/market-analysis/equities/netflix-q3-earnings-preview-can-ad-growth-take-the-baton-and-fuel-the-next-leg-higher
- https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/netflix-third-quarter-earnings-forecast-falls-shy-wall-street-expectations-2026-07-16/