SpaceX
Shortcut
0.22Normalized diluted EPS
+68.5% vs Street
Street
0.13Normalized diluted EPS
October 18 consensus snapshot
Real
0.35Published normalized diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
The Space, Connectivity and AI build forecasts approximately $12.86bn in revenue and model-normalized diluted EPS of $0.219. Only one reported historical quarter was available.
The model includes an assumed BTC fair-value gain. Excluding it gives about $0.182 EPS; the frozen Street estimate is $0.13, but the normalized comparison is unverified. Dilution and D&A allocation are material assumptions. The confirmed Cursor-award timing correction increased EPS by $0.000194; the original financial judgments were preserved.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026
- Reporting basis
- Conditional model-normalized diluted EPS includes assumed BTC fair-value gain; consensus comparison unverified
- Consensus snapshot
- October 18, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 19, 2026 at 11:13 PM PDT
- First published
- Oct 20, 2026 at 2:48 AM PDT
Result basis
Google Finance reports normalized EPS of $0.35; the issuer separately reports the same $0.35 GAAP diluted EPS. The frozen Street estimate remains $0.13.
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026052535/spcx-20260630.htm
- https://d1f19qmytqk9eo.cloudfront.net/edgar0105/2026/08/04/1181412/000162828026052515/document/earningsreleaseq22608042.htm
- https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Q2-2026-Earnings_Transcript-FINAL.pdf
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
- https://research.aardvarklabs.co/research/spcx/earnings/2026-s1/spcx-2026-s1-analysis
- https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/SpaceX-to-Post-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-and-Host-Webcast-on-October-20-2026-2026-QssQGye3im/
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026041150/spacexagreementfwp.htm
- https://www.axios.com/2026/05/20/anthropic-spacex-compute
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/22/spacex-ai-colossus-data-center-reflection.html
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026056945/spcx-20260814.htm
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardnieva/2026/06/08/cursor-4-billion-annualized-revenue/
- https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-strikes-billion-a-month-compute-deal-with-mystery-customer-2026-9
- https://finvaulta.com/research/deutsche-bank/rocket-launch-tracker-2026-10-08
- https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-14/
- https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/starlink-15-million-subscribers-by-2026
- https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price-september-2026
- https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/ubs-raises-spacex-stock-price-target-on-ai-growth-cloud-deals-93CH-4922171
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/spacex-stock-higher-as-td-cowen-initiates-at-buy-sees-ai-compute-driving-majority-of-revenue-193713033.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/spacex-evercore-isi-price-target.html
- https://tape.panke.app/q3
- https://bullfincher.io/companies/space-exploration-technologies-corp/market-cap
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/sp-global-keeps-fast-entry-proposal-unchanged-spacex-listing-looms-2026-06-04/
- https://seekingalpha.com/news/4648135-anthropic-agrees-to-pay-spacex-nearly-double-prior-estimates-for-compute-report
- https://qz.com/spacex-ai-computing-deal-billion-revenue-target-091126
- https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/SPCX/8-k.html
- https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/17/sources-cursor-in-talks-to-raise-2b-at-50b-valuation-as-enterprise-growth-surges/
- https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/space-exploration-technologies-corporation-join-nasdaq-100-indexr-beginning-july-7