United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Shortcut
2.69Normalized diluted EPS
+4.0% vs Street
Street
2.59Normalized diluted EPS
October 18 consensus snapshot
Real
2.54Issuer adjusted diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
The geography and traffic build estimates passenger revenue of $16,298.29m. Cargo contributes $523.84m and other revenue $1,083.95m, giving total revenue of $17,906.08m.
Operating expenses of $16,545.71m produce operating income of $1,360.37m. Net nonoperating expense of $118m gives GAAP pre-tax income of $1,242.37m; removing a $100m special credit gives adjusted pre-tax income of $1,142.37m.
A 23% adjusted tax rate produces adjusted net income of $879.6227137974588m. Dividing by 326.59999999999997m diluted shares gives adjusted EPS of 2.693272240653579, versus frozen normalized Street EPS of $2.59. The 75% beat probability is separate and does not multiply EPS.
The original forecast EPS was 2.747818915818373. A reviewed profit-sharing method change increased the expense from $128.01806568067346m to $151.15435673109437m. The $23.13629105042091m increase, after 23% tax and divided by diluted shares, explains the entire $0.05454667516479361 EPS reduction. The method interprets the higher tier cumulatively; that plan-period interpretation and the implied first-half base remain a disclosed limitation. The second repair and exact public export preserve all 140 scored EPS dependency cells.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026
- Reporting basis
- UAL adjusted diluted EPS, consensus normalized basis
- Consensus snapshot
- October 18, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 19, 2026 at 1:47 PM PDT
- First published
- Oct 19, 2026 at 2:20 PM PDT
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051725000190/ual_09302025erex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000014/ual_12312025erex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000089/ual_erx03312026xex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000135/ual_erx06302026xex991.htm