Etsy, Inc.
Shortcut
1.40Normalized diluted EPS
+7.5% vs Street
Street
1.30Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
1.56Provider normalized diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance (5-Aug-26): Etsy marketplace GMS $2.53-2.58bn (+4-6%), take rate ~26%, Adj. EBITDA margin 28-30%; 2026 actual GMS beat the top of the range in 1Q (+1.2%) and 2Q (+2.1%). Model: GMS $2,578m (+6.0% reported, +6.3% organic, -0.3pt FX from weaker EUR/GBP), take rate 26.1% -> revenue $672.9m vs $668.2m consensus.
Oppenheimer (15-Sep-26) SimilarWeb regression implies 3Q non-app buyers flat Y/Y vs -3% in 2Q, supporting the high end of the GMS guide; U.S. retail sales Jul-Sep +5.5% Y/Y.
Adj. EBITDA $198.4m (29.5% margin, upper half of guide) as restructuring (12% headcount cut, Aug-26) trims P&E costs; $35m restructuring charge is GAAP-only and excluded from normalized EPS.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- consensus data-normalized diluted EPS with original four-pair empirical calibration
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 3:59 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 3:59 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 9:49 AM PDT
Result basis
Etsy reports total GAAP diluted EPS $7.31 including discontinued operations and the Depop disposal, with continuing-operations diluted EPS $1.00. The live Google Finance Q3 2026 data panel and previous-report table now explicitly display Normalized EPS $1.56 versus a current estimate of $1.24. This revises the earlier observed provider actual of $7.31; both observations are retained in the audit. All six frozen historical normalized actuals still match the provider table. Scoring uses the revised literal provider-normalized actual, the unchanged original forecast and the frozen Street estimate of $1.30. No issuer normalized-EPS bridge or item-level provider adjustment definition was available, so the $1.56 is not described as an issuer-reported operating EPS measure. No surprise-percentage backsolve or GAAP inference was used.