Eli Lilly and Company
Shortcut
6.38Normalized diluted EPS
-4.4% vs Street
Street
6.67Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
7.48Lilly issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Lilly pre-announced (8-K, 2026-10-07) ~$4.2bn pre-tax acquired IPR&D in 3Q26, ~$4.57/share, included in both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS; the frozen 6.67 mean mixes contributors with and without it (median 5.85; post-charge previews $5.30-5.70).
Bottom-up revenue $23.17bn (+31.6% Y/Y, +0.9% Q/Q) vs $22.62bn consensus: U.S. Mounjaro/Zepbound volume (+5-7% Q/Q TRx), Medicare GLP-1 Bridge (~700k starts, 70% Lilly, $245/month) and Foundayo TRx ramp, net of ~$750m of assumed 2Q26 one-offs (rebate true-ups, $250m Jardiance milestone).
Non-GAAP GM 84.5% (2Q26 86.3% incl. one-offs), R&D $4.0bn, MSA $3.45bn → performance margin 52.3% vs FY26 guide 49-50.5% (guide implies ~47% in 2H, conservative given 1H 52.6%).
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (CapIQ: FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026)
- Reporting basis
- consensus data-normalized diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:23 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:23 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 11:01 AM PDT
Result basis
Reported and non-GAAP EPS both include $4.57 of acquired IPR&D charges. The original forecast explicitly includes the original $4.2bn charge once, so no charge is added back when scoring. The frozen $6.67 Street panel remains dispersed and may mix charge treatment, as disclosed before results. The current issuer reconciliation explicitly reports diluted non-GAAP 7.48 versus GAAP 7.22. The issuer Q3 2025 adjusted comparative 7.02 matches the frozen normalized history for that quarter. This check does not claim exhaustive item-level vendor definition equivalence.