Reddit, Inc.
Shortcut
2.14Normalized diluted EPS
+9.6% vs Street
Street
1.95Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
2.07Provider normalized diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance (Jul 30, 2026): 3Q26 revenue $860-870M and Adj. EBITDA $385-395M; Reddit beat its revenue midpoint by 8-12% in each of the last four quarters (Guidance tab). We assume a smaller ~4.5% beat (revenue $904M) because US DAUq fell sequentially in 2Q26 and search referrals stayed volatile.
Revenue build: US DAUq 53.0M (-0.4% Q/Q) x US ARPU +14% Q/Q (2025 seasonal step +14.9%) plus RoW DAUq 78.5M x ARPU +6%; other revenue $44M with licensing contracts running through 2026 (RPO $62M scheduled for 2H26).
Costs: adjusted opex +5.8% Q/Q gives Adj. EBITDA ~$415M (45.9% margin, ~65% flow-through of the revenue beat vs ~60-80% historically); SBC & taxes at the $147.5M guidance midpoint; tax ~1.5% under the full US valuation allowance.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 2026-09-30, fiscal year = calendar year)
- Reporting basis
- Normalized diluted EPS with original empirical consensus residual calibration
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 3:52 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 3:52 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 4:47 AM PDT
Result basis
Provider normalized actual revised from 1.40 to 2.07. Both literal Normalized EPS panel and Previous reports table explicitly show 2.07 after a fresh reload, with all six frozen historical normalized actuals matching. Issuer GAAP diluted 1.40 remains separate. The original SBC/payroll-tax add-back and empirical forecast residual stay fixed. No current item-level provider EPS adjustment bridge is available, so no SBC or tax bridge is invented. Prior 1.40 snapshots and scored result remain archived unchanged.