Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
Shortcut
0.16Normalized diluted EPS
+14.7% vs Street
Street
0.14Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
0.17Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Company 3Q26 guide (6-Aug-26): revenue $255-290M, non-GAAP GM 29-30.5%, non-GAAP NI $10.1-24.0M, EPS $0.11-0.26 on ~92.8M shares; consensus $0.14 sits near the low end after being cut from $0.28.
Revenue $264.9M (cons $268.1M): CATV $106M vs $100-110M guide (beat its own CATV range the last two quarters); datacenter $154.9M with 800G at 4.8x (guide "nearly 5x"), 100G -$22.5M (memory-driven switch shortage), 400G +32% Q/Q, 1.6T $6M initial.
Non-GAAP NI $15.0M: 29.8% GM, $74M opex (guide $70-80M), +$3M other income, +$7M non-GAAP tax benefit; guide math implies a ~$3-8M benefit and costs below gross profit beat the guide-implied level by $2-4M in each of the last three quarters.
Share base 93.1M (10-Q cover 84.57M + 0.25M RSU + 1.17M time-weighted from 5.14M ATM shares issued 21-Aug to 30-Sep + 2Q26 dilution 6.58M + 0.5M warrant) vs consensus implied 99.1M, so consensus-level NI maps to ~$0.15.
P(beat) 0.61: mid-cap prior 0.70 with 3 strict beats in 6 pairs gives 0.614; model-implied 0.60 given $0.06 historical surprise s.d. and the need to print >= $0.15 after rounding. Sector selloff (Oct-26) is generic and not weighted.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- non-GAAP (normalized EPS) diluted per common share, USD
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 10:19 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 6, 2026 at 1:55 AM PST
Result basis
Provider normalized EPS matches issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.17. The provider history table does not supply a report date; November 5 is the issuer release date. All six frozen normalized historical EPS values match.