Airbnb, Inc.
Shortcut
2.78Normalized diluted EPS
-2.5% vs Street
Street
2.85Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
3.16Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Revenue $4,764M (+16.4% Y/Y): nights +11% (prediction market ~147.8M; Wells Fargo +11.8%) x ADR +4.5% gives GBV +16%; take rate +6bps vs 3Q25, consistent with guide of $4.69-4.77bn and "in-line" take rate; Airbnb has landed at/above the top of its revenue range in recent quarters.
Adj. EBITDA $2,366M (49.7% margin) honours the guide of margin "down slightly" vs 50.1%, driven by S&M +32% Y/Y (timing of investments); matches consensus EBITDA $2,365M and Wells Fargo $2,375M.
Below the line is the gap to consensus: interest expense ~$36M/qtr on the $2.5bn notes issued Mar-26 and interest income ~$178M (yields ~11% lower Y/Y in 1H26) give non-operating income ~$134M vs ~$159M implied by consensus EBT.
Tax 18.0% (FY26 guide "high teens"; 1H26 ex-discrete ~17.8%) vs consensus 17.5%; 596.3M diluted shares after ~$1.0bn buyback; normalized EPS = GAAP EPS (no adjustments, consistent with consensus history).
P(beat) starts at 0.589 (S&P 500 prior 0.78, 2 strict beats in 6) and is cut to 0.379 because the model EPS of $2.78 sits $0.07 below the $2.85 consensus; Zacks ESP is also negative (-1.8%).
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- Normalized diluted EPS per Class A/B common share, USD (normalized EPS; equals GAAP diluted for ABNB in all six history rows)
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 10:21 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 6, 2026 at 1:55 AM PST
Result basis
Provider normalized EPS of $3.16 matches issuer GAAP diluted EPS for the quarter. The six preceding normalized values match the frozen inputs; this does not imply a general equivalence between GAAP and normalized EPS. All six frozen normalized historical EPS values match.