Arista Networks, Inc.
Shortcut
1.12Normalized diluted EPS
+4.0% vs Street
Street
1.08Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
1.20Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance (4-Aug-26): revenue ~$3.3bn, non-GAAP GM ~63%, op. margin 48-49%, EPS $1.06-1.08 on ~1,279m shares, tax ~21.5%; consensus $1.08 already sits at the top of the range.
Arista beat its revenue guidance midpoint in each of the last 4 quarters (avg ~+5%) and its op-margin midpoint by ~+145bps on average; FY26 guide raised to $12.6bn implies ~$3.56bn in 4Q if 3Q lands at $3.3bn.
Model: revenue $3,400m (+12% Q/Q; product +13.4%, service +3.5%), non-GAAP GM 63.0%, opex +6.7% Q/Q (NPI/liquid cooling) -> non-GAAP op. margin 50.1%, interest income $128m, 21.5% tax -> EPS $1.12.
Supportive quarter evidence: CFO said in Sep-26 Arista had two quarters of PO visibility and supply was improving; purchase commitments $9.7bn; hyperscaler 3Q capex ~$207bn; networking ODM Celestica beat and raised.
Risks kept the tilt modest: memory/silicon cost inflation (price increases only late-2026), acceptance-clause deferrals, Microsoft citing 3P capacity delays, and an Oct-26 sector sell-off (sentiment, no company news).
Starting P(beat) 87.4% from large-cap/S&P 500 prior (0.78) with 6/6 historical beats; trimmed 2.5pp because consensus already embeds the top of guidance -> 84.9%.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- non-GAAP diluted EPS (normalized EPS; excludes SBC, intangible amortisation, strategic-investment gains/losses, stock-award tax benefits and related tax effects), USD per diluted common share
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 11:10 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 3, 2026 at 6:57 PM PST
Result basis
Provider normalized EPS 1.20 agrees with issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS 1.20; GAAP diluted EPS 1.22 is distinct. Effective Q4 2025, Arista changed its non-GAAP tax methodology. This release recasts Q3 2025 non-GAAP EPS to 0.77, versus frozen/provider historical 0.75. Both observations are preserved; historical inputs are not restated. The 2026 target uses the current issuer methodology.