Arm Holdings plc

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Guidance (29-Jul-26): revenue $1.38bn +/- $50m, license ~+30% Y/Y, royalty low(-to-mid) teens, non-GAAP opex ~$780m, EPS $0.47 +/- $0.04; Arm met or beat its revenue and EPS midpoints in each of the last four quarters (avg +$35m revenue, +$0.04 EPS).

Revenue $1,387m: license $689m (SoftBank ~$200m run-rate + ex-SoftBank +45% Y/Y implied by the guide) and royalty $699m (+12.7%): mobile ~flat (IDC CQ3-26 units -22% offset by +27% royalty/unit from Armv9/CSS) and data-centre/auto/IoT +23%.

Costs: non-GAAP cost of sales $26m, opex $777m (guide ~$780m; Q1 under-spend was timing), interest income $32m, 15.0% non-GAAP tax rate (last five quarters 14.9-15.1%) -> non-GAAP NI $524m.

Diluted shares 1,080m (basic 1,069m + 11m awards; 1 ordinary share per ADS) -> non-GAAP EPS $0.485 vs frozen consensus $0.48 (31 estimates); GAAP EPS $0.21 after $330m SBC and $45m employer taxes.

P(beat) 62%: playbook v2 start 80% (large cap, 5 strict beats in 6) cut for consensus already above the guide midpoint, point estimate sitting on the $0.485 rounding threshold, the CQ3 smartphone collapse and opex catch-up risk; partly offset by data-centre strength (TSMC HPC +22% Q/Q).