BILL Holdings, Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Guidance (19-Aug-26): non-GAAP EPS $0.96-1.00 on ~102m diluted shares, non-GAAP OI $112.5-117.5m; frozen consensus $0.98 sits exactly at the midpoint.

BILL beat its own EPS guidance midpoint in each of 1Q26-4Q26 by $0.09-0.14 and consensus in all six supplied quarters (avg +$0.115); CFO flagged "a measure of prudence" in the 1Q27 outlook.

Bottom-up revenue uses guided drivers (AP/AR TPV +12%, 16.0bps take; S&E volume +15%, 260bps take, 130bps rewards; float yield 3.40% with the Fed +25bp on 17-Sep): legacy gross $439.3m vs guide mid $437.5m; reported revenue will be net of ~$93m rewards (8-K 15-Oct-26) = $346.6m.

Non-GAAP OI $117.3m (+$2.3m vs guide mid) as ~$80m p.a. net restructuring savings flow through; non-GAAP other income $12.5m after ~$300m of Jul-Aug buybacks; 20% non-GAAP tax.

Share count: 30-Jun-26 92.06m, 13-Aug-26 85.28m, 30-Sep-26 85.87m (10-K, proxy) -> basic ~87.9m + 13.3m dilution = 101.2m diluted (vs ~102m guided), giving EPS $1.03.

Risks: S&E card-acceptance and reward-tier actions, bank-channel exit, new sales motion; the 4Q26 beat was partly early RIF timing, so the modelled beat is smaller than history.