Booking Holdings Inc.
Shortcut
4.59Normalized diluted EPS
+1.9% vs Street
Street
4.50Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
4.66Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance (4-Aug-2026): 3Q26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA +4-6% Y/Y; the midpoint implies ~$4.49 adjusted EPS with model below-EBITDA items. BKNG has beaten the top of its revenue and EBITDA guide in each of the last four quarters (2Q26 EBITDA +9% vs 4-6%).
Top line: room nights +5.5% (Wells Fargo third-party data, 7-Oct-2026; guide 3-5%), CC ADR +1.5%, FX -1 pt as guided (3Q26 EUR/USD averaged ~1.151 vs the 1.15 assumption) -> gross bookings +6.0%, revenue $9.59bn (+6.5%), 0.5% above consensus.
Margin: adjusted EBITDA $4.53bn (+7.1%; 47.3% margin, +30 bp) with personnel +2% after Transformation Program actions and marketing +4 bp of gross bookings; adjusted ETR 20.4%.
Share count: buybacks continued after 2Q26 (shares 758m at 30-Jun to 751.4m at 27-Jul); assumed $3.5bn in 3Q26 at ~$190 -> 751m diluted shares (-7.7% Y/Y), which adds ~8 pts to EPS growth.
Downside tested: decelerating third-party nights data into September, IATA September air demand -0.5% (Middle East -8%), 4Q25 in-line precedent; FTC and EU DSA matters are GAAP-only risks and not modelled.
Beat probability: playbook start 0.803 (large-cap/S&P 500 prior 0.78; 5 strict beats in 6 consensus pairs; 8 pseudo-observations) less 5 pts for the negative quarter-specific data -> 0.753. EPS comes from the model; it is not inflated by the beat rate.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted EPS per common share, USD (= normalized EPS), post 25-for-1 split basis
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 11:17 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 3, 2026 at 6:57 PM PST
Result basis
Provider normalized EPS 4.66 agrees with issuer adjusted diluted EPS 4.66; GAAP diluted EPS 3.61 is distinct. Issuer GAAP and non-GAAP diluted shares are 753 million. The release and six historical rows use the 25-for -1 split basis effective April 2, 2026. No second split adjustment is applied.