CAVA Group, Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Revenue built from drivers: 476 -> 494 restaurants (18 openings) gives 5,820 operating weeks; revenue per week +4.2% Y/Y (SRS 4.0% + 0.2pp new-unit spread) on 3Q25 $59.4k -> CAVA revenue $360.0m plus $3.1m CPG = $363.1m (consensus $358.5m; Zacks CAVA-segment consensus $360.3m).

SRS 4.0% (traffic +0.5%, price/mix +3.5%): Placer.ai Q3 same-store visits +1.7% vs +7% in Q2; July Cyclospora headlines then recovery to mid-single digits by August (Q2 call); UBS sees ~3% vs 3.6% consensus; Kalshi median ~4.2%; Chipotle Q3 comps +2.1%.

CAVA restaurant-level margin 23.4% (-120bp Y/Y: salmon/fuel surcharges in FBP, wage investment, delivery mix, less leverage than Q2), consistent with FY26 guide 23.7-24.3% and the ~300bp Q3-to-Q4 seasonal drop; G&A ex-SBC 9.5% of revenue; ETR 28% (3Q25 28.6%).

EPS on consensus normalized basis = GAAP (all six history rows equal); $15.7m net income / 118.7m diluted shares = $0.132, ~0.7c above the $0.125 rounding threshold for a strict beat of $0.12.

P(beat) 0.64: size-aware prior 0.757 (mid-cap $6.86bn, not S&P 500; 5 beats in 6) trimmed for sector traffic softness, the 3Q25 miss and a thin rounding cushion.