ConocoPhillips

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Bottom-up segment build from 2Q26 actuals and COP's 3Q26 marker sheet (2-Oct-26): WTI 92.79->85.79, Brent 104.52->97.00, ANS 103.18->88.03 cut Alaska and Lower 48 liquids earnings.

Offsets: Waha recovery lifts Lower 48 gas realization ~+$1.90/MCF (Diamondback -2.15->+1.12; Chevron US 0.91->1.88); TTF +38% lifts Norway/EG gas; APLNG revenue +32% q/q (Origin) adds ~$130M equity earnings.

Qatar ramp embedded in 2.29-2.32 MMBOED guidance did not occur (Qatar 3Q26 LNG exports -77% y/y), so production ~2.24 MMBOED; ~20 MBOED turnarounds in Alaska/Norway/Malaysia.

Unusually strong 2Q26 marketing margins in Lower 48 and Canada (Canada flagged timing of sales) assumed to half-revert; DD&A, opex and corporate loss from FY26 guidance.

Adjusted NI ~$3.62B on ~1,192M diluted shares (assumed $2.5B buyback at ~$124) -> $3.03 vs $3.04 consensus; GAAP adds an assumed ~$75M pre-tax gain on the July Lower 48 sale less restructuring.

Beat probability: playbook prior 0.80 (large-cap/S&P 500 prior 0.78, 5 of 6 beats) reduced to 0.60 because the model sits at consensus and production should miss guidance.