Duolingo, Inc.
Shortcut
1.24Normalized diluted EPS
-21.9% vs Street
Street
1.59Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
1.32Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Revenue $304.2m: 13.1m paid subs x $20.40 ARPU plus ads/DET/IAP lines; ~0.7% above the $302m guide, in line with 1Q26/2Q26 beats of ~1%.
Adjusted EBITDA $76.2m: 72% gross margin (vs 71% guide) and $141.5m non-GAAP opex, less a $3.75m probability-weighted 4Q DAU-bonus accrual flagged by DA Davidson.
consensus normalized actuals tie to GAAP NI plus SBC/acquisition adjustments taxed at the quarter ETR (1Q26 $1.45, 2Q26 $1.24); at a 26% ETR and 49.9m diluted shares this gives $1.24.
Frozen consensus $1.59 (4 estimates) appears to add back SBC pre-tax; normalized EPS missed in 4Q25, 1Q26 and 2Q26 by $0.09-$0.30.
Prior p = (8 x 0.70 + 3)/14 = 0.61 for a mid-cap, non-S&P 500 issuer; cut to 0.07 because a beat needs >~$100m EBITDA on the consensus basis.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- consensus normalized diluted EPS (GAAP net income plus issuer non-GAAP adjustments - SBC incl. payroll tax, acquisition costs, earn-outs, impairment - tax-effected at the quarter's GAAP ETR), USD per diluted Class A/B common share
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 10:16 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 3, 2026 at 6:57 PM PST
Result basis
Literal provider normalized EPS is 1.32 in both the current panel and Previous reports, with all six frozen normalized historical values matched by fiscal quarter. The issuer reports GAAP diluted EPS 0.54 and basic EPS 0.58, and does not publish a normalized-EPS reconciliation in its shareholder letter. It is scored on the provider’s normalized EPS, the same basis as the Street. The frozen Q3 2025 normalized 6.80 outlier is retained. Original date strings remain unchanged; Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 report-date differences are recorded separately.