MercadoLibre, Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Revenue $10.70bn (+44.4% Y/Y, ~40% FX-neutral) built by segment and revenue type: commerce services from country GMV (Brazil +37% FX-neutral, take-rate −3.5%), 1P from GMV × 6.7% share, financial services from TPV × 202bps, credit from portfolio × 14.5% yield, allocated by country and translated at observed 3Q26 average BRL 5.14 / MXN 17.26 / ARS 1,500 (Fed G.5, BCRA) — in line with the $10.71bn consensus mean.

Credit ladder: gross portfolio $16.4bn → $18.2bn (+$1.8bn, as in 2Q26) after 4.7% write-offs; cost of risk 8.2% of average book (2Q26 8.2%) gives provisions $1.42bn (13.2% of revenue vs 12.5%); allowance roll-forward ties to the balance sheet.

Operating margin 6.7% (2Q26 6.7%, 1Q26 6.9%; management said the margin "dial" would not change materially): gross margin 41.1% (Mexico POS restocking one-off not repeated) and opex leverage in product development, S&M and G&A offset higher provisions — EBIT $718m vs consensus $728m.

Below EBIT: FX loss −$30m as the ARS moved only +2.4% in 3Q26 (vs +7.2% in 2Q26, −$45m), interest −$66m including 16 days on the new $1bn 5.85% 2036 notes, 26% tax rate → net income $482m (consensus NI excl. exceptionals $478m).

EPS $9.51 on 50.70m diluted shares sits above the frozen $9.18 mean, which is pulled down by a $7.57 low estimate (median $9.45; newer aggregator means $9.27–9.42). P(beat) 62% = size/history start 58.9% (large cap, 2 beats in 6) + 3pp quarter-specific evidence; confidence low given MELI's FX/tax/provision volatility and 4 misses in the last 6 quarters.