ON Semiconductor Corporation

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Guidance (2026-08-03): revenue $1.65-1.75bn, non-GAAP GM 40-42%, opex $303-318m, EPS $0.81-0.93 at 395m shares; onsemi beat its EPS midpoint by $0.02-0.04 in each of the last four quarters.

Bottom-up: PSG +11% Q/Q (AI data center 'up high teens', China SiC), AMG/ISG +2.5% → revenue $1,714m (+0.5% vs consensus); segment GMs lift company non-GAAP GM to 41.2% as 1H26 utilisation gains (68%→77%→83%) reach the P&L.

Peers that already reported 3Q26 were strong: TI revenue +11% Q/Q and above guide, NXP auto +7% Q/Q beating its outlook, STM above midpoint, MPS +63% Y/Y.

Share count: guided 395m used the 2Q26 average price (~$103); 3Q26 averaged ~$80, cutting 0% Notes warrant dilution — model 391.9m non-GAAP diluted shares (+~0.8% to EPS).

Risks kept in the estimate: input-cost inflation offset only by lagged price increases, AI-data-center prioritisation constraining auto/industrial shipments, elevated Synaptics deal costs (excluded from non-GAAP).

Starting P(beat) 80.3% (S&P 500 / large-cap prior 0.78, 5 beats in 6 consensus pairs) trimmed to 76% because the $0.896 point estimate clears $0.88 by under 2c.