Rockwell Automation, Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Guidance anchor: Aug-4 FY26 Adjusted EPS $13.00-13.30 less 9M $9.54 implies 4Q26 $3.46-3.76 (mid $3.61); sales guide 7.5-9.5% implies 4Q $2,311-2,478m (mid $2,394m).

Q4 color (prepared remarks): sales up low-single digits Q/Q, EOM ~flat vs 3Q26 22.3%, ID margin up slightly, S&C lower on memory inflation, LCS flat; corp ~$115m, net interest ~$120m, adj ETR ~19.5%, shares ~112.2m.

Model: segment organic bridge (ID +5.4%, S&C +15.9%, LCS -0.5% organic; FX +0.5%; Sensia divestiture -$63m from the ~(1.5)% FY guide) gives sales $2,426m (+4.9% Q/Q); EOM 22.4%; adj ETR 20.0%; diluted shares 111.4m (share bridge) -> Adjusted EPS $3.71, GAAP EPS $3.53.

Mild tilt above guide midpoint is evidence-based: management beat its own Q4 color in FY25 (sales +8% Q/Q vs low-single-digit guide), raised FY26 guidance every quarter, and pushed a Sept-6 list price increase; Sept ISM 54.5 and peer automation demand (Schneider IA +8%, ABB orders +40%) were firm.

Beat probability 0.65: size/history prior 0.874 (large cap, S&P 500, 6/6 beats) tempered by consensus already $0.08 above guide-implied, flagged inflation/mix margin pressure and the narrowing 3Q26 beat. Sensitivity: at the guide-implied 4Q adj ETR (~20.4%) and diluted shares (~111.7m) EPS would be ~$3.68, so the edge over $3.69 is thin.