Simon Property Group, Inc.
Shortcut
1.74Normalized diluted EPS
+7.5% vs Street
Street
1.62Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
1.94Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
2Q26 reported normalized EPS was $1.73 (consensus data) and 3Q is seasonally at least as strong as 2Q (3Q25 core $1.85 vs 2Q25 $1.57 on the same method); bottom-up 3Q26E is $1.74.
Lease income $1,680m = 2Q26 consolidated fixed rent grown with consolidated base rent (+0.5%) and occupancy (96.3% end-July) less $6m Saks/straight-line leakage, plus variable rent at a 1.05x Q3/Q2 factor; consensus revenue = lease income (2Q26 actual $1,659.7m ties).
consensus RE FFO consensus $3.31-3.32 converts to ~$1.73-1.74 of core EPS after D&A, so the 3-contributor normalized EPS mean of $1.62 looks low; GAAP EPS consensus (6/7) is $1.68.
Costs: interest $287m (refinancing at 5.3%+, $800m notes 16-Sep), D&A $462m, platform income $18m (J.C. Penney weakness), no unusual items forecast.
Starting P(beat) 0.589 from the size prior (large/S&P 500 0.78, b=2, n=6); raised by 0.09 for the model/FFO-consensus gap, tempered because consensus actuals for 2Q25/3Q25 removed ~$0.21-0.25 more than the statement items.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- normalized EPS, diluted per common share, USD (GAAP net income to common excluding equity-interest gains/losses, unrealized fair-value gains/losses and acquisition/sale/impairment items); revenue on consensus lease-income basis
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 11:19 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 8, 2026 at 12:59 PM PST
Result basis
Simon reports diluted EPS of $1.54. Rebuilt from its results release ↗ without one-off gains and losses, the figure is $1.79 to $1.94; $1.94 is shown. Shortcut is closer on every reading. Held for this basis check from the report until November 9.