Vail Resorts, Inc.

What drives the forecast

• CapIQ September 24 normalized consensus is a $5.37 loss on $269.3m of revenue, from ten normalized EPS estimates; GAAP consensus is a $5.35 loss. Forecast is below the normalized Street estimate, rather than an unearned beat.
• Vail's June 8 FY2026 net-income guidance midpoint implies about -$192.69m, or -$5.41 per Q4 share, after subtracting the reported first nine months. The guide assumes normal Australian ski-season weather.
• ABC reported Australia's warmest alpine winter on record with sparse June/July snow; the September 11 Alpine Observer counted only about 610,000 Perisher visits through the season against a >1m ten-year norm. These observations are after the June guidance and materially challenge the Australian July-quarter sales case, although early pass units were +26% and sales dollars +31% through May 27.
• Product-level mountain revenue of $169.33m (-6.4% Y/Y) plus $89.58m lodging and $0.09m real estate yields $259.00m of Q4 revenue; forecast net income is -$200.59m, giving normalized and GAAP diluted EPS of -$5.63 on 35.633m anti-dilutive common shares.
• A September 25 independent earnings preview reported three EPS misses in the four preceding quarters and a negative Earnings ESP. Weak snow-related visits, further interest expense, unknown contingent-consideration marks and jurisdictional tax benefits leave a meaningful probability of a miss despite the advance-commitment model.
• EPS basis: Normalized equals GAAP in this model; no exceptional adjustment assumed.