← All forecasts · October 12–16, 2026

TRV / Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026)

Travelers

Reported 2026-10-16

Published forecast

Oct 12, 2026, 2:38 AM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

7.51

Shortcut normalized EPS

+2.1% vs Street*

Street

7.36

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 11 snapshot

Real

9.18

Core income per diluted share

Shortcut win

Shortcut off by $1.67 · Street off by $1.82.

Uses core income per diluted share of $9.18, excluding net realized investment losses ($9.04 GAAP), consistent with the model’s core-income basis. The score compares published values; exact normalization matching remains unverified.

Issuer earnings release ↗

USD per diluted share

Explore the model.

Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.

TRV reviewed earnings model
Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Model note: Policyholder dividends are omitted. Using the recent quarterly average would lower modeled EPS by about $0.039/share.

Behind the estimate.

The model forecasts $7.51 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.

Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.

Model assumptions and review notes
  • Modeled normalized EPS; comparability with the frozen Street definition remains unconfirmed. The score compares published values directly.
  • F01 policyholder dividends excluded from BI I174 / B&S I127; no evidence-determined 3Q26E level. EPS sensitivity -0.0298 / -0.0391 / -0.0447 at $8m / $10.5m / $12m pre-tax. EPS-relevant caveat.
  • F02 forward normalized consensus contributor basis vs TRV core unconfirmed (historical 6/6 equal; NI excl. exceptional implies ~$7.26 vs $7.36).
  • F03 historical consensus snapshot timing unverified; P(beat) 0.70 judgment with no recorded blend weight; Playbook v2 priors unregistered.
  • F05 FI NII calibration retained: +$0.037 EPS if $840m after-tax guide realized literally.
  • F06 Canada mixed-scope earned-ratio / per-policy drivers: ~+$0.01 (BI) indicative, PI unquantifiable.
  • F11 buyback price $345 judgment: -$0.003 EPS at $368.75 close (now disclosed).
  • Cover!J30 '~$0.38 per $100m cats' is an approximation; at the 21% rate the computed figure is ~$0.3725 (pre-existing rationale text, no EPS dependency; left unchanged, not a confirmed error).
  • Source capture timestamps: financial inputs and consensus frozen per the October 11 manifest at date precision; no capture timestamps invented; no post-cutoff sources used.
  • Rendering: fit verified by font-metric estimate only; round-1 record of the screenshot-protocol deviation preserved; no vision/other model used.
  • Policyholder dividends omitted from 3Q26E BI/B&S claims (F1). This is an actual EPS defect: about -$0.039, range -$0.030 to -$0.045. The level is not determined by workbook evidence, so it remains for the next repair round or must be published as a caveat.
  • Forward 3Q26 normalized consensus basis vs TRV core income is unconfirmed (F2). Basis equality is shown for actuals only. EPS sensitivity cannot be quantified.
  • Judgmental tax rate on non-NII pre-tax of 21% (Income Statement I93) vs 2026 YTD implied rates of 18.7% and 22.0%. Non-NII pre-tax is about 877 (segment ex-NII 1003.4 less 126 corporate), so each 1pt is about $8.8m, or about ±$0.041 EPS. Retained as judgment.
  • FI NII after-tax is about $832m vs the $840m guide (F3): +$0.037 EPS if the guide is met. Retained judgment.
  • Earned-ratio Canada scope drag (F4): about +$0.01 per the workbook estimate. 2024 Canada NWP is not sourced.
  • Calibration evidence: market cap is blank (third-party S24 used); cohort priors and Playbook v2 are unregistered; historical consensus snapshot timing is unverified; final P(beat) of 0.70 has no recorded blend weight (F11). No EPS dependency.
  • Supporting lines with no EPS dependency: CFO zero assumptions; capex absorbed in the FM plug; share comp missing from the common-stock rollforward; AOCI held flat; FY25A KPI simple averages; FY25A EPS on approximate shares (F7-F10).
  • No sheet contains frozen panes, so there is nothing to remove.
  • Protocol disclosure: round-1 repair used three default Gemini Flash screenshot inspections for layout; its report states no forecasting or financial extraction relied on them. Subsequent repairs and the final independent audit used Opus 5.5 High. The round-1 dividend averaging assumption was reversed in round 2; the original EPS is preserved with the omitted-dividend sensitivity disclosed.

On the record.

Reporting period
Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026), ended 2026-09-30
Reporting basis
Core income per diluted common share (TRV non-GAAP = normalized diluted EPS), USD; Income Statement!I133 = I124 / I126 (Share Count!I38); core income I100 = GAAP NI I47 - realized gains after tax (I98 = 0) - other exclusions (I99 = 0); participating allocation I121 = -I100 x I114 (0.7172%). Bank-style attribution: net income to common = core income less participating-award allocation (I124 = 1,582.056).
Published
Oct 12, 2026, 2:38 AM PDT
Model / effort
Opus 5.5 · High effort

Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.

Research sources