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TSM / Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026)

TSMC

Reported 2026-10-15

Published forecast

Oct 11, 2026, 11:13 PM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

4.73

Shortcut normalized EPS

+6.0% vs Street

Street

4.46

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 11 snapshot

Real

4.60

Reported diluted EPS per ADR (TIFRS)

Shortcut win

Shortcut off by $0.13 · Street off by $0.14.

Uses TSMC’s reported US$4.60 per ADR for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, equivalent to NT$29.43 per ordinary share. The unchanged forecast and frozen Street estimate are also USD per ADR; no new currency conversion is applied.

Issuer earnings release ↗

USD per ADR

EPS is USD per ADR. Statements are in TWD millions. The model uses five ordinary shares per ADR.

Explore the model.

Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.

TSM reviewed earnings model
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Behind the estimate.

Reported monthly sales anchor quarterly revenue at NT$1,494.2 billion. Higher utilization and the model’s 67.2% gross-margin assumption support profit above the Street estimate.

Operating expenses rise 6% from the prior quarter. EPS is converted from TWD per ordinary share to USD per ADR using five ordinary shares per ADR and 31.9961 TWD per USD.

Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.

Model assumptions and review notes
  • The forecast assumes no normalized-to-GAAP adjustments. The difference between frozen normalized EPS consensus of $4.46 and GAAP consensus of $4.43 is unresolved.
  • Workbook timing erratum: Cover C18 labels the conference as 04:00 Taipei. The issuer conference is October 15 at 14:00 Taipei, equivalent to 2 AM Eastern.
  • Historical FX is calculated from Federal Reserve observations. The original webpage state was not separately archived. Cash-tax and historical cash-flow details retain their disclosed estimation limits.

On the record.

Reporting period
Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026), ended 2026-09-30
Reporting basis
Normalized diluted EPS, USD per ADR (1 ADR = 5 ordinary shares), basis; equals GAAP (TIFRS) diluted EPS x 5 / avg TWD per USD 31.9961 (Fed H.10 Jul-Sep 2026 mean, S19) for 3Q26E. Statements in TWD millions.
Published
Oct 11, 2026, 11:13 PM PDT
Model / effort
Opus 5.5 · High effort

Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.

Research sources